Yes, I did not do my job last week and did not finish the 10 Best Predictions project.
There was a wedding dinner, travel, and a lot of other stuff going on in the background of this long story. (It’s okay, you want the picks.)
Most likely, you didn’t miss much.
Both of those picks were in the game previews: I would have given you Georgia over Texas and Illinois at least covering against Michigan. But I would have gone really, really hard to the rim on Iowa over Michigan State and would have been completely wrong about my strange desire to think Stanford is good (it lost to SMU by 30 points).
I’m back with the living, but I need help.
I can’t find any picks. I really like all of those things that are… interesting.
I know that the money for Akron vs. Kent State is just as good as Alabama vs. Georgia, but be aware that this week’s version has a LOT of strange point totals. I’ll take a few Freddie Freeman home run cuts on the bigger ones to make up for it.
And now, (I hope) these are the right college football picks for this week.
Picks So Far: 54-32
10. Florida State at Miami
Line: Miami -20.5
Pick: Miami
What is it about Florida State that makes people think this could be close?
It’s kind of a rivalry game, so the defense has been fine. But is this the week that the Noles finally get their awful offense going?
This is how I’d say it. It’s not your problem if this is the week that Florida State scores more than 16 points for the first time since losing 24-21 to Georgia Tech in the first game. By the way, FSU hasn’t scored 17 points in eight of its last nine games dating back to the end of last year.
A quick note. I know that the line is 21 almost everywhere, but to avoid a push, I usually choose the ones with the hook. It’s okay if you can only get it at 21.
9. Auburn at Kentucky
Line: Point Total 44
Pick: Under
Let me do this thing where I don’t score again.
There’s something about this Auburn team that makes you think it’s about to score 40 points. Even if you don’t count the 48 points they gave up to Florida, Kentucky isn’t a good team to play if you want to feel good about your offense.
Five of the six UK games before last week’s game against the Gators ended with less than 44 points. The last three and four Auburn games both had scores of 44 or less.
8. Arkansas at Mississippi State
Line: Arkansas -7
Pick: Arkansas
Something good should happen at Mississippi State soon.
It’s going through a transitional phase, but aren’t all of us? It’s been a rough first year under head coach Jeff Lebby, and the offense has been acting better over the last few weeks.
Still, Mississippi State hasn’t beaten an FBS team yet, and all six losses were by seven points or more. This is similar to the idea that it’s not your fault if this pick doesn’t work, like when Florida State didn’t score.
Mississippi State has lost five straight games by more than ten points.
I do think that something is going to happen with the Bulldogs, though, because it has to. If Arkansas hadn’t been smashed by LSU last week, I’d agree with the trap game idea.
I’m stuck in a “Not Scoring” loop for some reason…
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