The other regions focus more on firepower.
Kentucky is in the fourth spot, and Purdue (3) and Illinois (6) can fill it, but the Midwest Region is all about defense.
Houston, Tennessee, UCLA, Gonzaga, and Georgia are the headliners in the D, which should be a difficult section of the bracket to navigate.
We’ll release significant previews and forecasts throughout the week. To begin, here’s my first guess for each Midwest Region NCAA Tournament game.
NCAA Tournament Predictions: Midwest Region Early Picks
11 Texas vs 11 Xavier
March 19, 9:10, truTV
Everyone spent so much time freaking out about North Carolina getting in that Texas got a free pass. This is an okay team that stepped up for a few games in the SEC Tournament, but it doesn’t do enough from three, it fouls a ton, and Xavier is terrific on the free throw line.
First Thought Prediction
Xavier 77, Texas 74
Texas vs Xavier Opening Lines
Bet MGM: Texas -2.5, o/u: 149.5
Draft Kings: Texas -2.5, o/u: 149.5
Fan Duel: Texas -2.5, o/u: 149.5
4 Purdue vs 13 High Point
March 20, 12:40, truTV
You want points? You’re getting them whether you like them or not. High Point keeps on cranking up the production and will happy put up numbers in bulk. Purdue doesn’t have the inside presence anymore without Zach Edey, but it’ll come through in the firefight.
First Thought Prediction
Purdue 84, High Point 72
Purdue vs High Point Opening Lines
Bet MGM: Purdue -8.5, o/u: 153.5
Draft Kings: Purdue -7.5, o/u: 153.5
Fan Duel: Purdue -8.5, o/u: 153.5
1 Houston vs 16 SIU Edwardsville
March 20, 2:00, TBS
There’s a chances the SIUE version of the Cougars don’t score. Like, really, they might lose 75 to 2. They don’t have a lot of scoring pop, but they can D up. That’s not going to work against Houston’s Cougars – one big early run from the Big 12 champs will end it.
First Thought Prediction
Houston 77, SIU Edwardsville 45
Houston vs SIU Edwardsville Opening Lines
Bet MGM: NA, o/u: NA
Draft Kings: Houston -28.5, o/u: 126.5
Fan Duel: Houston -28.5 o/u: 126.5
5 Clemson vs 12 McNeese
March 20, 3:15, truTV
Just how good is the ACC? Clemson looked great against the mediocre league, but it’s about to deal with a dangerous McNeese team that has everything you want in the tournament. The Cowboys are deep and play a nasty D. Clemson has the scoring pop, but it’s a 12-5 and I’ve been a bit too chalky so far, so …
First Thought Prediction
McNeese 70, Clemson 67
Clemson vs McNeese Opening Lines
Bet MGM: Clemson -7.5, o/u: 134.5
Draft Kings: Clemson -7.5, o/u: 134.5
Fan Duel: Clemson -7.5, o/u: 134.5
8 Gonzaga vs 9 Georgia
March 20, 4:35, TBS
This isn’t the Gonzaga team you’re used to, but it’s still big, it still knows how to play defense, and it has the right first round matchup against a Georgia team that doesn’t do much from three and needs to win on D.
First Thought Prediction
Gonzaga 77, Georgia 72
Gonzaga vs Georgia Opening Lines
Bet MGM: Gonzaga -6.5, o/u: 151.5
Draft Kings: Gonzaga -6.5, o/u: 151.5
Fan Duel: Gonzaga -6.5, o/u: 151.5
2 Tennessee vs 15 Wofford
March 20, 6:50, TNT
Wofford has the veteran backcourt to at least keep this relatively respectable. There’s no chance of pulling off the upset – they can’t hit jack from the free throw line – but they’ll hit enough threes to avoid getting annihilated until late.
First Thought Prediction
Tennessee 77, Wofford 58
Tennessee vs Wofford Opening Lines
Bet MGM: Tennessee -18.5, o/u: 132.5
Draft Kings: Tennessee -18.5, o/u: 132.5
Fan Duel: Tennessee -18.5, o/u: 132.5
7 UCLA vs 10 Utah State
March 20, 9:25, TNT
If you’re an investor, this is one of those “stay away” games. Utah State has been a bit off, but it’s big, scores a ton, and it’s deep. UCLA is way too erratic, and it’ll have a problem against the Aggie size on the boards, but it’ll slip though this in a fight.
First Thought Prediction
UCLA 77, Utah State 71
UCLA vs Utah State Opening Lines
Bet MGM: UCLA -5.5, o/u: 145.5
Draft Kings: UCLA -5.5, o/u: 145.5
Fan Duel: UCLA -5.5, o/u: 145.5
3 Kentucky vs 14 Troy
March 21, 7:10, CBS
Troy has to ramp up the offense fast. The Sun Belt champion has the defense to be a problem, and it rebounds everything, but Kentucky should be able to push its way though by simply scoring in a few waves. There will be drama, but UK will survive.
First Thought Prediction
Kentucky 83, Troy 71
Kentucky vs Troy Opening Lines
Bet MGM: Kentucky -10.5, o/u: 152.5
Draft Kings: Kentucky -10.5, o/u: 152.5
Fan Duel: Kentucky -10.5, o/u: 152.5
6 Illinois vs 11 Texas or 11 Xavier
March 21, 9:45, CBS
Illinois beats either one. The Illini might be bizarrely flaky – it relies on the three at the absolute wrong times – but they have the size and rebounding ability to hang with Xavier, and Texas doesn’t have the ability from three to pull it off. Going with the pick that the Musketeers will be here.
First Thought Prediction
Illinois 81, Xavier 75