The latest round of College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings are out. There isn’t anything shocking or stunning in them – remember, they’re just a snapshot of the immediate moment; all that matters is the final round of rankings.
But there’s one key part of this week’s batch that will occupy way too much air-time and hot air over the next few weeks.
Really, can Alabama make the College Football Playoff? Is there now a way for the ACC to miss the CFP entirely? This, and other brilliant thoughts in the 5 Things That Matter from the CFP Top 25.
College Football Playoff Rankings: 5 Things That Matter, Nov. 26
5. The Big 12 isn’t missing out on the College Football Playoff (maybe)
It seems like everyone is trying to make drama where there is not any.
All around, the Big 12 has been interesting, but there is not a single team that makes a case for being in the CFP.
But let us do this right now. It is in if CFP 16 beats Arizona State and wins the Big 12 Championship, making it 11-2. It is in if CFP 18 Iowa State beats Kansas State and wins the Big 12 Championship, making it 11-2.
And if Coach Prime’s Colorado gets a chance and wins the Big 12 title with a 10-3 record…
Not at all. There is no evidence that the CFP committee puts its thumb on any scale, which makes conspiracy theorists more likely to believe it. So if the Big 12 champion is likely to…
4. Could the ACC be left out of the CFP? Here’s how …
I think both the ACC champion and the Big 12 champion will make it to the College Football Playoff.
This is something I will say again and again: the committee loves conference champions. I was there for the meeting. I heard it. The title of the conference is the most important thing, but it does not guarantee anything.
So, what if South Carolina beats Clemson badly? The Tigers, who are ranked 12th in the CFP, would be 9-3. Let us say Miami loses at Syracuse. That would put Clemson in the running for the ACC Championship. Let us say that Clemson beats SMU.
Then what?
While that is going on, let us say that the Big 12 champion is locked in and Boise State rolls to a 12–1 record. Then, either Army beats Tulane to win the 11–1 AAC title or Tulane beats Army to win the 11-2 title.
So, with that…
3. Win 11 games, get into the College Football Playoff
I’ll keep repeating this because it probably matters.
In the previous ten years of College Football Playoff rankings, no 11-win team from a Power Five – now Power Four – conference would’ve missed out on an expanded CFP.
It’s the easiest thing for the committee to fall back on – did you come up with a ton of wins in your “power” conference? Yeah? You got 11 of them? Good enough, get in, so …
2. Ten teams are locked into a College Football Playoff spot with a win this weekend
We may all be missing this: the CFP cake is likely already baked.
The top ten teams in the latest College Football Playoff rankings—Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, Tennessee, SMU, and Indiana—are almost certain to make it in (99.2% locks).
The winner from this year’s AAC, Big 12, or Mountain West conference will get the last spot. Each of those conferences has one spot.
Remember that this group does not care about how things turned out last year—yes, the CFP committee got it right—they only care about conference championships as a part of the rankings. That being said…
1. How can Alabama get into the College Football Playoff?
Do not worry about Alabama not making the College Football Playoff if those first ten teams win, or if there are other clear options, like if Clemson wins the ACC or Texas A&M wins the SEC.
How?
With a 9-3 record, how can Alabama get in if they win against Auburn? This is the way…
1. Bama DESTROYS Auburn
And then at least three of these four things have to happen.
2. Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, loses SEC Championship to Texas
3. Notre Dame loses to USC – ugly
4. Vandy beats Tennessee
5. SMU faceplants against Cal
Or, 6. the College Football Playoff committee invokes the “… because it’s Alabama” clause.
