The top five conference champions automatically get into the College Football Playoff now that there are seven “at-large” spots. After that, it will be a free-for-all.
There are still some teams that are not in the CFP rankings that can win the conference title and make it to the tournament. But for now, it is all about the latest top 25 teams and what they need to do to get there.
First, let us say that the rules and examples from the ten previous final CFP rankings are set. A Power Four team with 11 wins should be in. No Power Five or now-Four team with 11 wins would have been left out of a bigger CFP. Besides that, it is game on.
How does each of the ranked CFP teams get to the playoffs? Let us go.
College Football Playoff Scenarios
25 Tulane
Record: (8-2)
at Navy, Memphis
A lot of teams in the CFP rankings are not as interested in this as Tulane is. Take down a strong Navy team on the road, beat a strong Memphis team, and you will win the American Athletic Conference title.
After all of that, get Boise State to lose in the Mountain West Championship, and… boom.
Are they going to make the College Football Playoff? 50/50 chance. Not only will Tulane win, but Boise State will also beat Colorado State in the MWC.
24 Army
Record: (9-0)
Notre Dame, UTSA
Do not worry about where Army is right now. Just ignore the schedule so far; there is nothing exciting to look forward to. If you beat Notre Dame, the debate would begin.
Get past UTSA and the Irish to win the American Athletic Conference title. With a 12-0 record—the Navy game comes after the CFP announcement—Army would probably beat Boise State to get in.
Army: Will they make it to the College Football Playoff? That will not happen. Notre Dame will handle it, and if they can’t, Tulane will. But everyone will be rooting for the Knights.
23 Missouri
Record: (7-2)
at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Arkansas
Kind of, it is still possible. Tennessee needs to lose to Georgia and Vanderbilt so that the Tigers can win. That is just the beginning of the fun tiebreaker.
Will Missouri make it to the playoffs for college football? Not at all. Next week, the Tigers will lose to South Carolina.
22 LSU
Record: (6-3)
at Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma
The Tigers are still in the running because they lost to USC in Week 1, but they need to win out and hope that six other SEC teams lose as well. It gets interesting after Alabama loses, Tennessee loses to Georgia, and Texas A&M beats Texas.
Maybe LSU will make it to the College Football Playoff. Think not, but it will be very close since they have won their last three SEC games.
21 South Carolina
Record: (6-3)
Missouri, Wofford, at Clemson
There would be no college football this season for a lot of SEC teams. Too many people are coming through because they lost to Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss.
Are they going to make the College Football Playoff? No, but Missouri’s long-held CFP dream will come to an end.
20 Clemson
Record: (7-2)
at Pitt, Citadel, South Carolina
Defeat Pitt. If you lose that, it is over. Get that win, and then hope that Miami loses to Wake Forest, Syracuse, or both. Also, make sure that SMU loses twice.
Are the Clemson Tigers going to the College Football Playoff? Yes, but it is a call, and you can not turn it down now.
I think the Tigers will beat Pitt and Miami will lose to Syracuse. That is a big guess. By the way, Clemson lost the tie-breakers to SMU and Miami because they lost to Louisville.
19 Louisville
Record: (6-3)
at Stanford, Pitt, at Kentucky
The Cardinals only need to beat Stanford and Pitt. The game against Kentucky does not matter. After that, they should pray for a miracle. Pitt has to beat Clemson, and SMU has to lose two of its last three games or Miami has to crash.
Are the Cardinals going to make it to the College Football Playoff? They won’t, but they will close strong.
18 Washington State
Record: (8-1)
at New Mexico, at Oregon State, Wyoming
There is a HUGE chance that the Cougars will win all three of their last games. To lose three games, they need to lose to a lot of big teams.
Is Washington State going to make it to the College Football Playoff? Not at all. It is a shame they do not have a conference title, but the wins over Texas Tech and Washington will keep things interesting.
17 Colorado
Record: (7-2)
Utah, at Kansas, Oklahoma State
The Coach Prime Buffaloes are in if they win out. The rest of the way, they will have the upper hand, so get to the Big 12 Championship and win it. If you lose once, you are out.
Will Colorado make it to the playoffs for college football? Think no. A thrilling shootout will decide Kansas’s winner.
16 Kansas State
Record: (7-2)
Arizona State, Cincinnati, at Iowa State
The Wildcats need to win their next three games and get lucky. If they lose again, they will be out, and at 10-2, they probably will not even be in the running for the Big 12 Championship.
Does Kansas State have a chance to make the College Football Playoff? Yes, but what might be true is not as important as the big call that is not being changed. Win the rest of the games, get Colorado to lose, and take the Big 12 to the CFP.
15 Texas A&M
Record: (7-2)
New Mexico State, at Auburn, Texas
It is really that easy. This year, A&M beat New Mexico State, won at Auburn, and beat Texas. They are now in the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff. If you lose any of those three, you are out.
Is Texas A&M going to make the College Football Playoff? Yes. That way, will beat Texas and knock them out. It is more likely that the winner between Texas and Texas A&M will go in and the loser will go out.
14 SMU
Record: (8-1)
Boston College, at Virginia, Cal
The Mustangs are by far the most interesting wild card because they do not have to play Miami or Clemson. But they are one of the few teams that can make their own luck; just do not lose again, and they will be the national champion.
Is SMU going to make it to the College Football Playoff? Not at all. A mistake will be made somewhere, like at Virginia, and the team will lose the ACC Championship.
13 Boise State
Record: (8-1)
at San Jose State, at Wyoming, Oregon State
They need to win their last game to get in, and even better, they have a real chance to get into the top four. Their only loss would be to Oregon, and they would be 12-1 with a Mountain West title. That would put them way up in the final rankings. They might be out if they lose, though.
Boise State might make it to the College Football Playoff.However, it will not be until after beating Colorado State in the Mountain West Championship.
12 Georgia
Record: (7-2)
Tennessee, UMass, Georgia Tech
Ga will be fine as long as it wins its next three games.The SEC Championship is out of its hands now that it has lost to Alabama and Ole Miss, but do not believe the bracket thing ESPN did on Tuesday night…
Are they going to make the College Football Playoff?Yes. 10–2 the winner is Georgia.
11 Ole Miss
Record: (8-2)
at Florida, Mississippi State
Get the last two games.There is nothing special about the last kick, but the Rebels’ 10-2 record will be enough to get them in.
Is Ole Miss going to make the College Football Playoff?Yes. With ten wins, it will get the job done.
10 Alabama
Record: (7-2)
Mercer, at Oklahoma, Auburn
If you lose once, you are out.There is a part of the CFP that says “because it is Alabama,” but it will be hard for any 9-3 team to get in. But if you lose the SEC Championship after going 10-2, you are in.
Will Alabama make it to the playoffs for college football?For sure, since it is Alabama.
9 Miami
Record: (9-1)
Wake Forest, at Syracuse
At 11-1, get to the ACC Championship.If the Canes do not win the ACC title, it might not be possible for them to get in. In reality, though, they are likely to win if they win their last two regular season games.
Will Miami make it to the playoffs for college football?Making the choice to say “no.” From the beginning of the season, I thought Syracuse would beat Miami, and I am not going to change my mind now.
8 Notre Dame
Record: (8-1)
Virginia, Army, at USC
Get in if you win all three.Lose one more game and they are out. The Irish will be out after their loss to Northern Illinois if they lose another game without a conference championship to play for.
Does Notre Dame have a chance to make the College Football Playoff?Yes. It will be the sixth or seventh seed and run the table.
7 Tennessee
Record: (8-1)
at Georgia, UTEP, at Vanderbilt
If you beat Georgia, everything will be okay. Perhaps.It would be terrible to lose to Vanderbilt, but it will also be bad to be 10-2 and not have a trip to the SEC Championship. One of the several SEC teams that were in the running will not make it, but…
Does Tennessee have a chance to make the College Football Playoff?Yes, but it could be close—like, the 11th or 12th. The win over Alabama will make up for the loss that was expected to happen to Georgia.
6 BYU
Record: (9-0)
Kansas, at Arizona State, Houston
As long as you get to the Big 12 Championship at 12-0, everything will be fine.But the Big 12 is not very good. If BYU does not win the Big 12 title, 11-2 is not a sure thing. All three games are risky.
Will BYU make it to the next round of college football?Yes, very, very soft. One of its last three games will be lost, and it will be tough in the Big 12 Championship.
5 Indiana
Record: (10-0)
at Ohio State, Purdue
Get one of the last two games. Indiana is in a great place. The CFP will not leave out an 11-1 Big Ten team, even though it does not have a great win. But if you lose both games, one of them will be to Purdue and you are out.
Maybe Indiana will make it to the College Football Playoff.Yes
4 Penn State
Record: (8-1)
at Purdue, at Minnesota, Maryland
Get in if you win three in a row.The Nittany Lions have not won a lot of games, but they will be in as long as they win their next three. They can either get in with an 11-1 record or win the Big Ten Championship and get in. win or lose.
The College Football Playoff is coming up. Will Penn State make it?Yes
3 Texas
Record: (8-1)
at Arkansas, Kentucky, at Texas A&M
Do not lose before the SEC Championship. The CFP will accept Texas if it wins the SEC title game and is 11-2. However, if it loses one of its last three games, it will have a very big problem because it has a shockingly average schedule with no big wins.
Will Texas make it to the playoffs for college football?With a loss to Texas A&M, soft lean OUT
2 Ohio State
Record: (8-1)
at Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan
Don’t lose before the Big Ten Game.If Ohio State wins, they will be the number one seed in the CFP. If they lose their second regular season game, things will get scary. Right now, they are 11-2 with a loss in the Big Ten Championship.
The College Football Playoff is coming up. Will Ohio State make it?Yes
1 Oregon
Record: (10-0)
at Wisconsin, Washington
Find your way to the Big Ten Championship.Of course, in with a chance to win the Big Ten title, but the Ducks will also be in if they are 11-2 or better. To lose it would only be possible if they lost to Wisconsin and Washington.
Will Oregon make it to the playoffs for college football?Yes