Iowa is not like other places.
It scores now, which is different, but it is not really consistent like it used to be. The offense smashed Washington and Northwestern, but the defense fell apart against Michigan State, stopping what would have been a good second half schedule.
With three games left, UCLA, Maryland, and Nebraska, this should be the toughest test of the season. Running the table and getting into the CFP at 10-2 is no longer a goal.
Wisconsin is fine when it is playing average to bad teams—everything worked against Purdue, Rutgers, and Nebraska—but it has what it takes to be a Big Ten adult.
Many people may not be happy with where the program is now under Luke Fickell, but if they win, they will be able to go to the bowl game. If you lose, Oregon, Nebraska, and Minnesota are all coming up soon, so this could get rough.
Wisconsin vs Iowa Preview
Wisconsin vs Iowa How to Watch
Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
Venue: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
How to Watch: NBC
Iowa (5-3), Wisconsin (5-3)
Why Wisconsin Will Win
Iowa will throw a little more than it did in past seasons, but the big plays aren’t going anywhere. When the O works, it’s RB Kaleb Johnson hammering away behind a good line to control the game throughout.
But Wisconsin’s run defense is solid. It’s not a brick wall, but it’s consistently okay. Alabama is the only team to crank it up, and Penn State ran for 173 yards last week, but no one has been able to get to 200. No, it’s the pass defense that’s the problem.
Even with Drew Allar getting knocked with a leg injury, Penn State still ended up with 246 yards. USC’s Miller Moss went off, and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe was terrific.
Those are the only three times the Badgers allowed more 150 passing yards, and those are the only three losses. Iowa starting QB Brendan Sullivan isn’t Allar, Moss, or Milroe.
Iowa has yet to throw for more than 180 yards against an FBS team. However …
Why Iowa Will Win
There’s another element to the Wisconsin success besides not being good against decent teams – Western Michigan is the only one of a team that might go bowling – and needing to hold up against the pass.
It’s still Wisconsin. The coaching staff figured out that running against bad teams works, but it doesn’t fly against the strong run defenses. The Badgers ripped apart Rutgers and Purdue, but was stuffed by Penn State last week.
On the year they’re 0-3 when running for fewer than 150 yards and 5-0 when they come up with more.
Ohio State ran for over 200 yards on the Hawkeyes and Michigan State was shockingly amazing two weeks ago.Those were the only two times anyone got past 130 yards on the Hawkeye D.
Wisconsin vs Iowa: Who Will Win
To make a long story short, the team that runs faster will win.
Would the Badger offensive line be able to turn it up and blast the Iowa defense? Will Iowa’s passing game be good enough to make up for the likely flaws in other areas?
Okay, fine. It could be this simple. Wisc. still needs to show that it can win this kind of game.
Wisconsin vs Iowa Prediction, Betting Lines
Iowa 26, Wisconsin 16
Line: Iowa -3, o/u: 41.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 4
Wisconsin vs Iowa Must See Rating: 3
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